DECEMBER 2025 CONSUMER INDEX REPORT

Written by Michael Thervil

DECEMBER 2025 CONSUMER INDEX REPORT | WRITTEN BY MICHAEL THERVIL

[December 2025 Consumer Index Report] Looking at December's Consumer Price Index (CPI), on the macro level it appears that all categories are up. With “All Items” showing a 2.7% growth, “Food” being up 3.1%, “Energy” up 2.3%, and "All Items Less Food and Energy” is also up 2.6%. drilling down into “Food”, Americans are still spending more on restaurants than they are eating at home with “Food Away From Home” leading in this category at 4.1% and “Food at Home” falling behind with a 2.4% growth.

This is a trend that has been consistent since the previous Biden Administration. Looking at “Food At Home”, the biggest growth drivers were “Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs” which grew at 3.9% and “Nonalcoholic Beverages and Beverage Materials” showing the highest growth at 5.1%. Following these two categories were “Other Food At Home”, “Cereals and Bakery Products”, and “Fruits and Vegetables" at 2.7%, 1.5%, and 0.5% respectively.  The only category that fell into the negative was “Dairy and Related Products" which were at -0.9%.

In terms of “Food Away From Home” the leader in this category was "Full Service Meals And Snacks” which grew 4.9% followed by “Limited Service Meals And Snacks” which stood at 3.3%. In the “Energy” sector, “Energy Commodities” fell into the negative -3.0% while “Energy Services” shot up to 7.7%. In the “Energy Commodities” sector, “Fuel Oil” grew to 7.4% while gasoline (all types) fell into the negative to -3.4%. The reason “Fuel Oil” was up due to Christmas travel. Examining the “Energy Services Sector” both “Electricity” and "Natural Gas (Piped)” were up to 6.7% and a whopping 10.8%. The spike in "Natural Gas (Piped)” was due to cold weather fronts sweeping across the northeastern parts of the United States.

Drilling down into the last major category “All Items Less Food and Energy”, both “Commodities Less Food and Energy" and “Services Less Energy Service” were up to 1.4% and 3.0% respectively. In the “Commodities Less Food and Energy” sector, the biggest leader was "Tobacco and Smoking Products” which significantly grew to 6.8% in the month of December. The nearest growth spike was "Alcoholic Beverages” which grew to 2.1%. All other categories grew at a rate of less than 2%. Those sectors were “Used Cars and Trucks” 1.6%, “Medical Care Items” 1.5%, “Apparel” 0.6%, and lastly, “New Vehicles” which nearly fell flat at 0.3% in terms of growth. Nationwide inflation, reciprocal tariffs authored by the Trump Administration, and geopolitical tensions all contributed to the weak growth rate in this category.

Lastly, the “Services Less Energy Services” category. All sectors within this category showed modest growth with “Medical Care Services” showing the highest growth at 3.5%. This was followed by “Shelter” which grew by 3.2%, then “Transportation Services” 1.5%. In all, it can be said that what appeared to be modest growth in terms of the collective of categories and sectors within the American economy, consumers still perceive that they are paying more to essentially get less. We predict that this is a trend that will continue well into the future of the Trump Administration.