RUSSIA WARNS PM ARMENIA NIKOL PASHINYAN OF SEEKING EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION MEMBERSHIP

Written by Michael Thervil

RUSSIA WARNS ARMENIA NIKOL PASHINYAN OF SEEKING EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION MEMBERSHIP | PHOTOGRAPHER UNKNOWN

[Armenia H.E. Nikol Pashinyan Eurasian Economic Union] With Armenian Prime Minister H.E. Nikol Pashinyan winning reelection, the socio-economic fate of Armenia lies in the balance. The reason why Armenia's socio-economic status appears to be compromised is because of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s pivot to the Collective West, specifically, the Americans the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It was reported that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's centrist Civil Contract Party secured 49.8% of voters during this year's election. Out of 19 political parties and alliances in Armenia, the Strong Armenia alliance (pro-Russian) secured 23.3% of voters for second place while the Armenian alliance (pro-Russian) secured third place with 9.9% of the voters in the country. It should be noted that only 59% of the country's registered voters participated in this year's elections.

Russia has taken the position that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan being pro-west is a foolhardy political mistake that will ultimately have dire consequences not only for Armenia and its citizens, but for the region. Armenia, which lies smack in the middle of neighboring countries Türkiye, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia appear to pose a significant increased risk of instability in the region according to Russian officials. The first two reasons that come to mind are because of the increased likelihood of Armenia becoming a military target in the future if they decided to form a military alliance with the Americans and its allies in the future. Second to that is the fact that Armenia is seeking to join the EAEU. Lastly, Russia also suspects that western countries interfered with the year’s election.

Although considered to be a long shot by geopolitical analysts, the mere hopes of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeing Armenia gaining membership within the EAEU seems to be unlikely. However, in his latest statement yesterday to the Press he stated:

"We will continue the course of rapprochement with the West, but we will also continue our participation and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union.”

In response to Prime Minister  Nikol Pashinyan attempting to align Armenia who was a long time soviet partner in the past, with the west, specifically the Americans, Russia who accounts for 35% of trade with Armenia when on the strategic offensive in an effort to persuade Prime Minister  Nikol Pashinyan from further aspiration of joining the EAEU by imposing a complete ban on the importation of Armenia flowers, fish, herbs water, alcohol products, fruits and vegetables. The cover cited by Russia for their actions is because of Armenia committing “safety violations”. Russia is currently considering furthering their offensive position by dealing a blow to Armenia’s oil, gas, and energy sectors; sectors that Armenia relies heavily on Russia for. Russia supplies 60% of Armenia's oil and 80% of its gas. Losing access to Russian supplied gas and energy This would cost Armenia 14% of its GDP.

With Armenia possibly losing well over $3 billion in critical assets from Russia due to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeking to align the country with the EAEU, the socio-economic future is currently at risk. Another conflict of interest lies in the fact that Armenia currently has a Russian military base within its borders. Russia is also home to roughly 2 million Armenians. Russian President Putin stated during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that Russia would “maintain normal relations with Armenia regardless of the path it chooses”.

This latest win by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan comes at a time when domestic support for his leadership waned from 54% to 30% in the last five years primarily due to his position on the ethnic fighting between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh which was home to 100,000 Armenia until Azerbaijan militarily took it by force three years ago. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan position on the matter was considered too weak by many Armenians as he was seen to have given into political pressure for the possibility of peace with Azerbaijan who took the former leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh into legal custody. Armenian public support for his handling of this ethnic crisis was split with 44% of Armenia approving of his handling of the situation while 41% disapproved.