MARCH 2025 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)

Written by Michael Thervil

The CPI or the consumer price index is a great indicator of which the American economy is going. Currently, looking at the surface of it seems that everything seems to be on the up and up for the exception of "Energy". “All Items” are up 2.4%. when you look at “Food” in the general sense, it too is up 3.0%. the category “All Items Less Food and Energy Commodities” are up standing at 2.8%.

Drilling down into the “Food” category, specifically, “Food away from home”, “meats, poultry, fish, and eggs” are up the highest at 7.9%. followed by “Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Beverage Materials” which stand at 2.4%. “Dairy And Related Products” trailed at 2.2%. “Cereals and Bakery Products” stood at 1.1% and was tied with “Other Food From Home” (1.1%). The only that fell into the negative was “Fruits and Vegetables” which fell a meager -0.7%.

Examining the category “Food Away From Home” which stood at 3.8%, “Full-Service Meals And Snacks” were way up at 4.1% with “Limited Service Meals And Snacks” up by 3.4%. The trend that we have been seeing for months is that “Food Away From Home” has always outperformed “Food From Home” consistently every month. The question is why? could it be that Americans are conditioned /prefer/ or value dining out more than eating at home? Or is it cheaper to dine out than it is to dine in in the comfort of their own homes? We at VEDA Communications are choosing the later.

In general, the “Energy” sector has the biggest dip into the negative than any other sector for the month of March in general. We are finding that within the “Energy” sector, “Energy Commodities” have fallen across the board into the negative by 9.5%. following that same dip into the negative it would be “Gasoline (All Types)” at 9.8% followed by “Fuel Oil” at 7.6%. things look a lot better when you examine “Energy Services” which stand at 4.2% for the month of March. The leader in this category is “Natural Gas (Piped)” which grew by 9.4% followed by “Electricity” which stood at 2.8%

In the “All Items Less Food and Energy” it grew by 2.8% during the 12-month average at 2.8%. drilling down in the category, “Commodities Less Food and Energy Commodities” which as a whole fell -0.1%, the only clear winner was “Tobacco and Smoking Products” which shot up to 6.8% last month. Everything else in this category either remained stagnant or remained flat. “Apparel” stood at 0.3%, the sale of “New Vehicles” were flat at 0.0%, “Used Cars and Trucks” flattened to 0.6%, “Medical Care Commodities” also were flat at 1.0% and lastly, “Alcoholic Beverages” also seemingly flat depending on how you articulate it at 1.9%. for some economic this is a plus, but it doesn’t denote any real change from February.

The “Services Less Energy Services” were up to 3.7% however, this isn’t necessarily a good sign. Like it or not Americans are paying more when it comes to “Shelter” (4.0%), “Rent Of Primary Residence” (4.0%), “Owners Equivalent Rent Of Residences” which too went up to 4.4%. The housing market is not looking too well in America as Americans are having to spend more while either getting the same or less when it comes to getting the bang for their buck.

In the “Medical Care Services” which is up 3.0%, both “physician services” and “Hospital Services” are up 2.9% and 3.7% respectively. Many Americans are complaining that medical services are simply too high even if they have health insurance. In the “Transportation Services” sector which is up 3.1%, “Motor Vehicle Maintenance and Repair” is up 4.8% with “Motor Vehicle Insurance” significantly up by 7.5%. In contrast, “Airline Fare” dipped into the negative by -5.2%.