IRAN COULD SIGN A NON-NUCLEAR DEAL IF?

Written by Michael Thervil

From the position of the Trump Administration, the only nuclear deal that they are willing to strike with Iran is that Iran doesn't attempt to build a nuclear weapon, that they allow weapon inspectors from both the Americans and Israel come in at any time to ensure that they aren’t building a nuclear weapon, and that Iran doesn't enrich their uranium past 3.6%. This seems like a hard stance taken against Iran by the Americans, but at what cost? President Trump has already stated that if Iran refuses to sign a non-nuclear deal that he would use “Maximum Pressure” which includes the use of force by the American military on the sovereign country of Iran. There's just one thing; not only will Iran not allow themselves to be coerced into signing any kind of deal under the threat of a gun, but they will not abandon any of its peaceful nuclear ambitions.

This is where things get murky between America and Iran. While the threat of force is the only card left for the Americans and their backers to play against Iran, Iran has placed itself in a position to negotiate terms with the Americans that would appear to be more in their favor. One of the biggest cards that Iran has is that it could demand that America lifts all sanctions on the country of Iran. The reason for this possible card being played by the Iranians is because the Trump Administration has just recently proposed the lift of its sanctions on Syria. Despite the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) Terrorist now turned Interim President of Syria Ahmed Al-Sharaa, with a former $10 million bounty on his head, Iran would be well within their rights to ask that the same lifting of American sanctions be lifted off them as well.

Just how far President Trump is willing to go to secure a deal with the Iranians is currently unknown. But the one thing that is known is that it is not Iran that has to move with a sense of urgency, but it’s the Americans that must do so. The attempts by the second Trump Administration to bring back the terms and conditions of the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which they reneged on, is something that will not be considered by Iran. The reason for this is because there is no incentive on Iran's part to put their trust in the Americans not to shift the goal post or even walk out on a reinstatement of 2015’s JCPOA .

While President Trump was in West Asia earlier this week cutting billion dollar deals at the Saudi forum, he took the time out to address the press by stating that “Iran has to move quickly” in terms of coming to an agreement regarding nuclear talks or “something bad is going to happen”. What the consequences will be for Iran if they choose not to sign a nuclear deal with the U.S. is currently unknown. Some people hold the position that even President Trump himself doesn’t even know. But what is known is that Iran will never sign a deal with anyone under the pressure of a gun, given the fact that Iran has been sanctioned for nearly 40 years and still has managed to thrive and grow their economy.

If President Trump lifts sanctions on Iran, there will be no turning back to how things “used to be”.