MAY 2025 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX REPORT

Written by Michael Thervil

May 2025 Consumer Price Index Report

[May 2025 Consumer Price Index Report] Yesterday the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On the surface it looks as if all categories are up except for “Energy”. With all the inflation occurring within America due to Trump’s Administration imposing tariffs on essentially the entire world, in sum, “All Items” are up 2.4%, “Food” is also up 2.9%, and the category “All Items Less Food And Energy” are also up 2.8%. Looking at the category of “Food”, as it has been for the last 6 months, “Food Away From Home” is still up; this month it registered at 3.8%. “Food at home “also grew to the tune of 2.2%.

Drilling down into “Food At Home”, all categories are up for the exception of “Fruits And Vegetables” which fell during the month of May to -0.5%. The largest sector of growth in the “Food At Home” category was “Meats, Poultry, Fish, And Eggs”, which significantly grew to 6.1%. Within the same category “Nonalcoholic Beverages And Beverage Materials  were also up 3.%. “Dairy And Related Products” followed by growth standing last month at 1.7%. “Other Food From Home” clocked in at 1.4% and “Cereals And Bakery Products” came in last in terms of growth at 1.0% last month.

Looking at “Food Away From Home” which has perpetually been up since the Biden Administration, “Full-Service Meals And Snacks” led in this category with a 4.2% growth factor when compared to “Limited-Service Meals And Snacks” fell slightly behind at 3.5%. Observing the category of “Energy”, “Energy Commodities” fell a staggering -11.6% while “Energy Services" were up last month at 6.8%. Drilling down into “Energy Commodities” both “Fuel Oil” and “Gasoline (All Types)” were both down -.8.6% and -12% respectively. When evaluating “Energy Services”, “Natural Gas (Piped)” grew three times the rate of “Electricity” in this category. “Natural Gas (Piped)” grew to 15.3% while although the demand for electricity is up – primarily due to the heat of the summer months in America, it only grew to 4.5%.

In the “All Items Less Food And Energy” category, “Service Less Energy Services” significantly outpaced “Commodities Less Food And Energy” by leaps and bounds. With “Commodities Less Food And Energy” showing growth to 0.3%; “Services Less Energy Service” shot up to 3.6%. Drilling down into the “Commodities Less Food And Energy Commodities”, the sector with the highest growth was “Tobacco And Smoking Products” which  grew to 6.3%. Following this sector was “Used Cars And Trucks” which grew 1.8%, followed by “Alcoholic Beverages” which trailed behind at (1.5%). Negligible growth was seen in the sectors of  “New Vehicles” (0.4%) and “Medical Care Commodities” (0.3%). It should be noted that “Apparel” fell into the negative to -0.9%.

Finally, in the “Service Less Energy Services”, the sectors of “Shelter”, “Medical Care Services”, and “Transportation Services” were up 3.9%, 3.0%, and 2.8% respectively. On paper, it doesn’t seem that the month of May was that bad for the average American consumer. However, the decision of The Trump Administration to apply sanctions to most countries around the world has yet to be felt to a degree that would spark economic backlash towards the Trump Administration from the average American.

Remember, not only does it take time for American tariffs of this magnitude to trickle back down and rattle consumers, but it should also be noted that the Trump Administration has suspended the application of it's tariffs for a couple of weeks within the month of May as well. The decision on the behalf of the Trump Administration to do so has left both markets of all types, businesses and investors in a heightened state of uncertainty.