TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES PEACE DEAL WITH IRAN. WILL IT FLOP?

Written by Michael Thervil

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES PEACE DEAL WITH IRAN. WILL IT FLOP? | ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES

[Trump Iran peace deal] With the latest announcement from the Trump Administration that a peace deal with the Iranians should be reached and signed by Friday in Geneva, Switzerland sounds likely, geopolitical pundits and analysts don’t seem too much in a hurry to exhale any signs of relief. The Trump Administration stated that if the peace deal with Iran was to be completed by this coming Friday, it would include Iran agreeing to never produce, buy, or obtain a nuclear weapon. The anticipated deal would also include Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and that the fighting between the two nations would stop for 60 days.

Although this is not an exhaustive list of those allegedly agreed upon by y both the Trump Administration and the Iranian government, detractors and critics of the deal are questioning what exactly does Iran stand to gain from agreeing with a peace deal with the Trump Administration as Iran had expressed that it has no faith or trust in the Americans due to the Americans failing to keep any of  their promises and signed agreements. While the Trump Administration announced that if the Iranians signed a deal this week it would lead to a 60 day pause in fighting, the Iranians have expressed that they would only agree to do so if the Trump Administration delivers on its promise to refund $25 billion of dollars in both frozen assets and funds back to the Iranian government. The Trump Administration stated that any refund of frozen assets or funds would be dependent on if the Iranian government will comply with the demands of the Trump Administration.

Another part of the deal was that America would end its sanctions on Iran as well as provide a $300 billion reconstruction package to repair damages within Iran due to the military actions of America. Geopolitical analysts see President Trump’s latest moves to broker a peace deal with the Iranians to ease the international oil, Gas, and energy markets for a brief time. It was reported that the price of WTI crude oil dropped to nearly 4.7% or roughly $80.83 per barrel; Brent crude oil also fell 4% or to an estimated $83.77 per barrel after the announcement of the upcoming peace deal with Iran.

Then there is the issue with the state of Israel. Questions of whether Israel will agree to not attack Iran have yet to be touched on and revealed during the negotiation process between the Trump Administration and Iran. Keep in mind that this war of aggression and choice towards Iran was a joint American-Israeli executed action. This is a significant point to understand as the Iranian government has repeatedly stated that any peace deal with the Americans would have to include Israel ceasing all bombing and combat operations towards the Iranian backed organization Hezbollah. In rebuttal to this Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has historically kept a hardline perspective on Hezbollah and has declared that the state of Israel would not be bound to any agreement that the Trump Administration has brokered with the Iranian government and has vowed not to remove its soldiers and military assets from southern Lebanon.

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This peace deal between the Trump Administration and Iran will be just as fragile as any other deal that was attempted to be made between the two countries. However, if America does manage to keep it part of the deal up with Iran, Israel will soon find a way to torpedo the deal which will again place President Trump in another quagmire. The question of will the Trump Administration continue to support Israel if it does torpedo the peace deal at some point or will the Trump Administration separate itself from the state of Israel became the main issue. With the Israeli controlling American politics and American politicians themselves, the likelihood of America separating itself from Israel seems to be very slim.

Make no mistake about it, this peace deal between Iran and America appears to be something worth noting, but in the end, it will end up like the vast number of past deals with the Iranian governments: destroyed.